Mini-Conference on
Monday, 19th December, 2005

London Business School
Sussex Place, Regent's Park
London NW1 4SA, England


9:00 Registration and Coffee
Laing House, London Business School

9:30 Session 1 (Chair: Catalina Stefanescu)

9:30 Paul Tetlock (McCombs School of Business, University of Texas at Austin)
Designing Information Markets for Decision Making (with Robert Hahn and Donald Lien), slides

10:00 Robin Hanson (George Mason University)
Logarithmic Market Scoring Rules for Modular Combinatorial Information Aggregation, slides

10:30 Coffee Break

11:00 Session 2 (Chair: Marco Ottaviani)

11:00 Leighton Vaughan-Williams (Nottingham Business School)
Efficiency in Exchange Betting Markets (with Michael Smith and David Paton), slides

11:30  Olivier Gergaud (Université de Reims)
Strategic Forecasting in Rank-Order Tournaments: Evidence from Horse-Racing Tipsters (with Bruno Deschamps), slides

12:00 Frederic Koessler (THEMA, Universite de Cergy-Pontoise)
Individual Behavior and Beliefs in Experimental Parimutuel Betting Markets (with Charles Noussair and Anthony Ziegelmeyer), slides

12:30 Lunch for All Participants (Sponsored by John Delaney, CEO, TradeSports / Intrade)
During the lunch break there will be three short presentations on the practical implementation of prediction markets:

  • John Delaney will share some unique perspectives on the realities of operating prediction markets on TradeSports and Intrade
  • James Adam will illustrate the working of parimutuel derivates on economic statistics at ICAP and Goldman Sachs
  • Robert Wilburn will discuss the current state of corporate prediction markets, drawing on his work at RIMDEX and NewsFutures



    14:30 Session 3 (Chair: Luis Garicano)

    14:30 Justin Wolfers (The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania)
    Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities (with Eric Zitzewitz), slides

    15:00 Peter Norman Sørensen (University of Copenhagen)
    Aggregation of Information and Beliefs in Prediction Markets (with Marco Ottaviani), slides

    15:30 Coffee Break

    16:00 Session 4 (Chair: Andrea Prat)

    16:00 Erik Snowberg (Stanford Graduate School of Business)
    Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections (with Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz), slides

    16:30  Koleman Strumpf (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)
    Manipulating Political Stock Markets: A Field Experiment and a Century of Observational Data (with Paul Rhode), slides

    17:00 Eric Zitzewitz (Stanford Graduate School of Business)
    Full Distribution Event Studies (with Justin Wolfers), slides

    19:00 Conference Dinner for Speakers and Session Chairs (Sponsored by Karim Tahawi, Founder of start-up myCurrency)

    Economics Subject Area

    London Business School

    Administrator: Helen George, tel.020 7706 6857